A Plan for Building an Ozone Science and Air Modeling Research Process in the Houston-Galveston Region
February 8, 2002
Executive Summary
In 1999, the 8-county Houston region, including Montgomery County, had the worst ground-level ozone problem in the nation, even surpassing Los Angeles. Ozone is a direct threat to the health of people who live and work in this region. Exposure, even at relatively low levels, can reduce lung function in healthy people, increase the incidence of asthma in children, and compromise our immune systems. The Houston region is currently in violation of federal ozone standards and must demonstrate that this problem can be solved by 2007, or face substantial penalties that will affect the region's economy.
To reduce ozone pollution, it is essential to have a good understanding of ozone formation and distribution. However, Houston has unique and challenging conditions that make it particularly difficult to perform the required meteorological and atmospheric chemistry computer simulations. This difficulty arises from of our location on the Gulf Coast, the associated complex climate along the Gulf, and the large volume and nature of industrial emissions. Area business leaders, elected officials, scientists and environmental organizations have banded together in an attempt to gain this additional knowledge and tools through a concentrated, multi-year, focused research effort.
The Greater Houston Partnership (the Partnership) is spearheading the creation of the Texas Environmental Research Consortium (TERC, or "the Consortium") to facilitate part of this research. Funds will be received amounting to $4.1 million from the Coastal Impact Assistance Program. The Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC) has been asked to serve as the research management organization to oversee the timely completion of funded projects. A prestigious Board of Directors with members from government, academia, industry, and environmental organizations will guide the Consortium; and a Science Advisory Committee consisting of nationally known air quality experts will select and monitor research.
Background
The Ozone Problem
In 1999, the 8-county Houston region, including Montgomery County, had the worst ground-level ozone problem in the nation, surpassing Los Angeles as the "smog capital" of the U.S. News coverage and meetings about this problem and how to solve it have become commonplace. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), ground-level ozone (sometimes called smog) is responsible for billions of dollars of losses in crop yields and damage to some species of trees. More importantly, it is also a threat to the health of people who live and work in this region. Exposure to ground-level ozone, even at relatively low concentrations, can significantly reduce lung function in healthy people, increase the incidence of asthma in children, and compromise our immune systems.
To address the nation's deteriorating air quality, including ground-level ozone, the U.S. Congress' passed the 1970 Clean Air Act. The Act is intended to protect human health and the environment by controlling outdoor, or ambient, air pollution through reducing individual pollutants at their sources. The first federal air quality initiative was the Air Pollution Control Act of 1955, which was strengthened over the years, resulting in the Clean Air Act of 1970. The Clean Air Act was amended in 1977 and again in 1990, when President George H.W. Bush approved new changes passed by Congress. The 1990 Amendments established the air quality standards that the Houston area is now violating.
The Clean Air Act requires the EPA to establish the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. These standards set upper limits on the acceptable concentration of six specific air pollutants in outdoor air: sulfur dioxide, particulate matter, nitrous oxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide. States are responsible for developing strategies to attain these standards and methods to continue to meet these standards. The states adopt plans, known as State Implementation Plans (SIPs), and submit them to EPA to ensure that they are adequate to meet the standard. If an area exceeds a pollutant standard, that area is designated as a "nonattainment area." The 8-county Houston area region exceeds the standard for ground-level ozone, thus making Houston a nonattainment area for this pollutant.
Unlike the other pollutants regulated by the Clean Air Act, ozone is not an emission from a vehicle or industrial source, but is formed by the interaction of chemicals in the atmosphere. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) react in the presence of sunlight to form ozone (O3). VOCs and NOx include a wide range of chemicals and are emitted from many different sources in the region. The control of ozone is based on reducing the emissions of these two groups of pollutants. Since 1993, the region has focused solely on reducing VOCs, resulting in an almost 90 percent reduction in emissions of these pollutants. Our current ozone strategy is to continue reduction of VOCs, but to also greatly reduce NOx emissions.
Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are primarily formed in this region by the combustion of fuels at stationary sources and mobile sources. The basic process is a reaction of nitrogen (N) and oxygen (O2) to form NOx, although NOx also occurs as a part of other chemical processes in the atmosphere. Stationary sources include combustion processes at electric power plants and industrial facilities. Mobile sources include on-road vehicles such as cars, trucks, buses; but also off-road vehicles like planes, boats, trains, ships, and construction equipment.
Challenges of Ozone Mitigation
In 1999, NOx emissions in the Houston region amounted to 1,053 tons per day. Without mitigating efforts, these emissions are forecast to increase to 1,292 tons per day by 2007 as our economy and population continues to grow. To comply with clean air regulations, the 8-county Houston non-attainment region must reduce these emissions to only 279 tons per day by 2007, a reduction of 1,013 tons, over 75% of the projected emissions.
Because of the effects on human health, impacts to the region's economy, and the potential loss of federal transportation revenues, the State of Texas has undertaken a significant effort to ensure attainment of the federal standard for this pollutant by 2007. The Texas' SIP developed for the Houston non-attainment region includes a 90 percent reduction in NOx emissions by stationary sources, a mandated work schedule for landscape activities, reductions in the maximum speed limits, as well as many other air pollution reduction measures from on-road and off-road mobile sources. Despite all of these efforts, a projected shortfall in NOx reduction of fifty to sixty tons per day still exists. Means for eliminating this shortfall must be identified in a mid-course review that is scheduled to occur by 2004.
Ozone Science and Modeling Challenges
To demonstrate attainment of the ozone air quality standard, the State of Texas uses various methods and procedures developed in the scientific community and approved by EPA. These include extensive and detailed emissions inventories, meteorological models and atmospheric chemistry models. In addition, there are other computer-based modeling tools that project and simulate such activities as mobile source emissions. These methods and procedures are proscribed by a regulatory framework that involves EPA officials and their scientists to ensure that sound methods and assumptions are included in the analysis process.
The Houston region poses a challenging situation that has been extremely difficult to model. This difficulty arises from the complex climate regime of the Gulf Coast region, and the volume and variety of emissions produced by the region's industrial plants. In addition, meteorological and atmospheric chemistry processes are not understood well enough to apply them in computer modeling. With this complexity and uncertainty is also the challenge of projecting these conditions into the future. For the Houston region, the health of its citizens relies on having good decisions about air quality and good information on which to base these decisions. For area businesses, it means having the best information possible for decisions that affect billions of dollars of investment in air quality equipment. The need to improve our understanding of ozone science and our ability to model these phenomena, therefore, is crucial.
The State of Texas has recognized in the current SIP that ozone science and air modeling must be improved in both the short and long term. Significant investments in making these improvements are already underway. For example, in the summer of 2000 a team of nearly 300 air quality scientists gathered extensive data on the Houston and East Texas regions. This was the largest air quality research project ever conducted in this country. Analysis of the massive amounts of information collected in this project is underway and much more will be needed simply to understand what was observed during this study. Initial findings pose new and difficult questions about air quality in the region. As a rough measure of our understanding of air modeling, the current criterion for accuracy is to achieve a confidence level of plus or minus 30%. This regulatory criterion is a far wider margin than most scientists, regulators and community leaders would like.
The Texas Environmental Research Consortium
The Texas Environmental Research Consortium (TERC) is being established to help policymakers and program managers improve their understanding of ozone science and atmospheric modeling along the East Texas Gulf Coast through directed research and applied science projects.
The inadequate understanding of the region's air quality as described above must be met with better science and better tools. To address this issue, the Greater Houston Partnership set in motion a plan to fund and implement needed research to reduce the uncertainties and create more accurate and reliable results. Taking the extra steps to ensure that the correct mix of controls is ultimately embodied in the SIP is crucial. The economic well being and health of this region and its citizens and the region's ability to attain the federal ozone standard by 2007 will be greatly affected by the ozone science and atmospheric modeling upon which the SIP is based. The SIP includes a provision to review progress and results in early 2004, the so-called "mid course review." It is during the mid course review that the SIP can be changed to better take advantage of scientific and technological advances made up to that time by the Regional Research Consortium and others.
The goals of the Consortium are to:
- Develop and implement an air quality research agenda that leads to improved understanding of ozone science and atmospheric modeling in the East Texas Gulf Coast region;
- Enhance the air quality research capabilities of universities and scientists within the Houston-Galveston region and throughout the State of Texas;
- Establish and maintain the research protocols and procedures to ensure that the research completed through the Consortium meet the required rigorous scientific criteria to ensure that it is objective and credible; and
- Support and facilitate the development of sound air quality policies in the State of Texas and within the Houston-Galveston region.
A Board of Directors will govern the Consortium. The Board will consist of seven members representing state and county government, academia, business, non-governmental organizations, public health, and the Consortium Research Management Organization.
The Consortium Board will form a Science Advisory Committee (SAC) to review and prioritize research projects to be funded through the Consortium, with such projects being a part of the Consortium's Strategic Research Plan. The primary goal of the Committee is to ensure that the selection and implementation of research projects is fair, efficient, independent and scientifically valid. The SAC will be composed of 5 to 10 individuals from the scientific, public health, and/or public policy communities who are knowledgeable with regard to ozone science and atmospheric modeling research.
The Consortium board will also form a Science Synthesis Committee (SSC). The role of the SSC is to coordinate with the TNRCC's science synthesis committee and to systematically assess the "state of the science" in ozone research and air modeling, and to provide guidance to the Research Management Organization as it periodically updates its Strategic Research Plan.
The Role of the Research Management Organization
To achieve the objectives set forth above, the Board of Directors of the Regional Research Consortium will require substantial management support from a qualified organization. HARC's role as the Research Management Organization includes developing a Strategic Research Plan in collaboration with TNRCC, EPA, the Consortium's Science Advisory Committee, and the Consortium's Science Synthesis Committee; creating and periodically updating a Strategic Research Plan; and managing the pace and deliverables of the numerous research contracts that will be granted to various institutions in this process.
HARC has hired Mr. John Hall of John Hall Public Affairs to lead its internal management process. Mr. Hall has exceptional expertise to this project. From 1991 to 1995, Mr. Hall was the Chairman of the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission. In this position he served as the chief executive officer of the agency with responsibilities for implementing state and federal requirements relating to air quality, water quality and other environmental programs. Mr. Hall has a consulting practice, John Hall Public Affairs, which consists of a small group of top-notch problem solvers with significant experience in public policy development and program implementation specializing in natural resource matters. Mr. Hall serves as an advisor to the Mayor's Office at the City of Houston on air quality and related environmental issues.
The Process and Funding
Texas and Houston community leaders have worked during the past year to acquire initial research funding that now amounts to approximately $8 million. Additional research funds may be forthcoming in future years by actions resulting from Senate Bill 5, the Texas Emissions Reduction Program passed by the Texas Legislature in the last session.
As part of this research funding effort Harris County and the State of Texas agreed to designate $4.1 million in federal funds from the Coastal Impact Assistance Program (CIAP) that can be used to fund ozone science and air modeling research and related activities. This $4.1 million for air research includes $1.86 million for Harris County and $2.25 million for the State of Texas. Funding from the federal government will flow directly to Harris County and also to the State of Texas. Texas will receive a total of $26.4 million CIAP funds in accordance with a distribution formula established by Congress for coastal states. The Texas General Land Office is responsible for managing funds that the state will receive. HARC is contracted with Harris County to manage its allocation of CIAP funds in accordance with Federal guidelines. There will be another contract for the remaining $2.25 million either through the State of Texas or another entity designated by the State.
In addition to the $4.1 million from federal sources, HARC is providing $250,000 in foundation funding and an additional $90,000 that will come from other sources to be identified during 2002. Of the Federal funds, $3.7 million or 90% directly fund research projects, 5% will be used for contract management and 5% for research planning.
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